Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
